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Daily Tropical Review for 21-Dec-04 (Dated Sample) Copyright
Jump To: Charts & Data | Fundamental Commentary | Technical Commentary

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Tropical/Softs/Foods Commentary
from Boyd Cruel at
www.Alaron.com

COCOA: (Trading Hours: 7:00am-10:50am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) The market closed lower today on follow-through selling from the previous session. Spec and fund selling has been present in the last week. Origin selling has also been present on rallies as beans continue to move through the Ivory Coast channels. The market has found underlying support as bean arrivals are behind last year's pace, which has led many to believe that the crop could come in 190,000-210,000 tonnes lower than the previous year. The market could continue to trade in its range for the last month of 15.50-17.00. There has been little news in this market and we are beginning to see holiday trade volume. Support for March is at 15.70. Resistance is at 16.00-16.10.

COFFEE: (Trading Hours: 8:15am-11:30am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) Fund buying pushed the March contract to a new high of 107.75 today. Commercial buying has been present on breaks and the market has shown strength since closing over the psychological level of 100.00 last week. The market has been able to rally in the last month and a half as producer selling has not been present. Last week, the International Coffee Organization reported a production deficit for the 2005-2006 marketing year of 6-8 million bags versus the previous year. Crops from Brazil and Vietnam are expected to come in smaller. This has provided underlying support. Stocks in certified warehouses as of 12/16, were at 4,536,674 bags with 40,973 bags waiting to be graded. Support for March comes in at 105.00. Resistance is at 108.00.

**Trade recommendations are e-mailed daily. If you are interested in a 1-week trial, please e-mail me at bcruel@alaron.com.**

**If you are interested in receiving the Softs Update, please e-mail bcruel@alaron.com or call me at 800-216-1491.**

**For those who are not already Alaron clients, Alaron Trading is a brokerage firm that offers different levels of service. If you are interested in receiving an account package, please e-mail  bcruel@alaron.com or call me at 800-216-1491. 

SUGAR: (Trading Hours: 8:00am-11:00am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) Fund buying supported the market today as prices were able to hold support last week of 8.40 basis March. There is a double-bottom at 8.44. Trade buying was present at these lower levels. However, producers have been selling the rallies and have been more present near the 9.00 level. Many traders are expecting cash demand to pick up from Russia and India early next year. There has been some cash activity from Middle Eastern countries and Indonesia. Funds and specs are still holding a large net-long position of over 87,000 contracts. If prices are unable to get above 9.00, we could see more long liquidation in the short-term. Longer-term traders should continue to buy these breaks as we could see tightness in the cash market going into the early part of next year. Support for March is at 8.70. Resistance is at 9.00.

OJ: (Trading Hours: 9:00am-12:30pm CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) The January contract pushed to a new monthly high today of 86.95. The market has moved higher in the last week on cooler weather moving into the Florida citrus-growing regions. However, it does not look like there will be freezing temperatures that would affect the crop. But it did not stop the market from moving higher today. Traders will continue to monitor the weather as the freeze period runs through the middle of January. The market is already expecting a smaller Florida crop of 168 million boxes. Spread trading will be active ahead of first notice day for the January contract on January 3rd. Support for January is at 85.00. Resistance is at 87.00.

COTTON: (Trading Hours: 9:30am-1:15pm CST)  (Report, as of 12/20 close) Volume was light today as the March contract traded in a 60 point range today. Prices have been able to move higher since making a monthly low of 41.72 on 12/6. The market has found underlying support as traders are expecting better demand from China and the weaker dollar. The upside will continue to be limited as there are expectations for a large U.S. crop of 22.82 million bales. Ending stocks are estimated at 7.7 million bales. In order for this market to turn around, we will need to see strong export sales. Support for the March contract is 43.70. Resistance is at 45.00.

 
Open an account with Boyd Cruel Today! Call 800-216-1491 or e-mail to bcruel@alaron.com



Softs Commentary from Jeremy Smith at Traders Exchange Corp.
 

Softs:   March Cotton rallied early yesterday and then sold off in to the close, and closed down about 20 points.   Not very positive technical action and traders should be ready for the market to test the bottom side of the range.  The bearish fundamentals like the USDA's recent report of massive crops all over the world should continue to limit the upside.   Traders can look to position short on rallies and using about a 43 point stop.   The latest USDA figures show that we have the largest U.S. Ending stocks since the mid 1980's.   We are still looking for the market to test 40 to 35 cents over the next month or two, with small speculators holding a long position and massive world supplies we don't see much to support current prices.  Cotton Option traders that wish to be long should be looking at selling March Call Option against long July Calls (calendar spreads).   Near term futures traders should be looking to sell on rallies and for the market to test near term lows at 41.70.  Long term harvest lows and historical lows that we are looking for are near 35 cents. Low prices cure low prices so lets go down to some levels that attract the buyers and get rid of this cotton.

March Sugar continues to see fund liquidation and that trend will probably not change until next year.   Continue to expect the market to slowly drift lower to first support at 8.35 and then 8 cents.   To low to sell right now and not low enough to be buyer.   Sidelines for now.

 

Jeremy Smith is Ceo and Head of Market Research with Traders Exhange Corp. (www.TradersExchange.com). Jeremy has enjoyed about 8 years of trading and founded Traders Exchange Corp. in 2002. Trading styles consist of strong blend of fundamental and technical anaylsis.


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