Tropical/Softs/Foods Commentary
from Boyd Cruel at
www.Alaron.com
COCOA:
(Trading Hours: 7:00am-10:50am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) The
market closed lower today on follow-through selling from the previous
session. Spec and fund selling has been present in the last week. Origin
selling has also been present on rallies as beans continue to move through
the Ivory Coast channels. The market has found underlying support as bean
arrivals are behind last year's pace, which has led many to believe that
the crop could come in 190,000-210,000 tonnes lower than the previous
year. The market could continue to trade in its range for the last month
of 15.50-17.00. There has been little news in this market and we are
beginning to see holiday trade volume. Support for March
is at 15.70. Resistance is at 16.00-16.10.
COFFEE: (Trading
Hours: 8:15am-11:30am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) Fund
buying pushed the March contract to a new high of 107.75 today. Commercial
buying has been present on breaks and the market has shown strength since
closing over the psychological level of 100.00 last week. The market has
been able to rally in the last month and a half as producer selling has
not been present. Last week, the International Coffee Organization reported a
production deficit for the 2005-2006 marketing year of 6-8 million bags
versus the previous year. Crops from Brazil and Vietnam are expected to
come in smaller. This has provided underlying support. Stocks in certified warehouses as of
12/16, were at 4,536,674 bags with 40,973 bags waiting to be graded. Support for March
comes in at 105.00. Resistance is at 108.00.
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SUGAR: (Trading
Hours: 8:00am-11:00am CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) Fund
buying supported the market today as prices were able to hold support last
week of 8.40 basis March. There is a double-bottom at 8.44. Trade buying
was present at these lower levels. However, producers have been selling
the rallies and have been more present near the 9.00 level. Many traders
are expecting cash demand to pick up from Russia and India early next
year. There has been some cash activity from Middle Eastern countries and
Indonesia. Funds and specs are still holding a large net-long position of
over 87,000 contracts. If prices are unable to get above 9.00, we could
see more long liquidation in the short-term. Longer-term traders should
continue to buy these breaks as
we could see tightness in the cash market going into the early part of
next year. Support for March is at 8.70. Resistance is at 9.00.
OJ: (Trading
Hours: 9:00am-12:30pm CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close) The
January contract pushed to a new monthly high today of 86.95. The market
has moved higher in the last week on cooler weather moving into the
Florida citrus-growing regions. However, it does not look like there will
be freezing temperatures that would affect the crop. But it did not stop
the market from moving higher today. Traders will continue to monitor the
weather as the freeze period runs through the middle of January. The
market is already expecting a smaller Florida crop of 168 million boxes.
Spread trading will be active ahead of first notice day for the January
contract on January 3rd. Support for January is at 85.00. Resistance is at
87.00.
COTTON: (Trading
Hours: 9:30am-1:15pm CST) (Report, as of 12/20 close)
Volume was light today as the March contract traded in a 60 point range
today. Prices have been able to move higher since making a monthly low of
41.72 on 12/6. The market has found underlying support as traders are
expecting better demand from China and the weaker dollar. The upside will
continue to be limited as there are expectations for a large U.S. crop of 22.82
million bales. Ending stocks are estimated at 7.7 million bales. In order
for this market to turn around, we will need to see strong export sales. Support for the March contract is
43.70.
Resistance is at 45.00.
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